Heading into the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election cycle, polls generally show former President Donald Trump with an edge over President Joe Biden.
CNN is hosting the debate in Atlanta on Thursday evening, weeks before each candidate is expected to formally receive his respective party’s nomination and a little more than four months before Election Day.
Trump led Biden 46.6% to 45.1% as of Wednesday, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls. The site’s co-founder and president, Tom Bevan, said Trump’s 1.5 percentage point advantage is the largest it has been in three months.
Trump’s lead in the RCP National Average (+1.5%) now bigger than it’s been in three months. pic.twitter.com/Bv3UdiEWQM
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 27, 2024
Some polls take into consideration independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein, none of whom qualified to appear on the debate stage this week.
With the others thrown into the mix, the RCP average of polls showed Trump with 42.3% support, Biden with 39.7%, Kennedy with 7.2%, West with 1.4%, and Stein with 1.3% as of Wednesday.
Another national poll tracker, this one from FiveThirtyEight, shows Trump with just a 0.1 percentage point lead over Biden, 41%-40.9%, while Kennedy has 9.2%. Its 2020 feature shows Biden had a 9.4 percentage point advantage over Trump on this date four years ago.
Forbes reported last week that an Ipsos poll showed Trump ahead of Biden in seven battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada—with inflation and immigration being top concerns for voters.
This week, as relayed by Bulwark reporter Marc Caputo, former Ron DeSantis campaign pollster Ryan Tyson came out with swing state polls showing “not only is President Trump still edging out Joe Biden on the ballot test in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin – his lead has expanded in four of those five states.”
Former DeSantis campaign pollster @ryan_tyson is out with a batch of swing state polls showing “not only is President Trump still edging out Joe Biden on the ballot test in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin – his lead has expanded in four of those five states” pic.twitter.com/LdheOvzcg2
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) June 27, 2024
It has not been all good news for Trump.
Fox News recently did a survey that found Biden to be the front-runner, and GOP strategist Karl Rove argued over the weekend that Biden had some polling momentum after Trump was convicted in his New York hush money case late last month.
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Still, there have been some particularly troubling signs for Biden in the past couple of weeks.
The recent findings of what is widely regarded as a “gold-standard” poll in Iowa from J. Ann Selzer’s firm showed Trump ahead, touching off commentary about how it portends a poor showing for Biden in battleground states across the Midwest.
And pollster Nate Silver unveiled a forecast model this week on his “Silver Bulletin” substack that found Trump had a nearly 66% chance of winning the 2024 election.
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[[{“value”:”
Heading into the first presidential debate of the 2024 general election cycle, polls generally show former President Donald Trump with an edge over President Joe Biden.
CNN is hosting the debate in Atlanta on Thursday evening, weeks before each candidate is expected to formally receive his respective party’s nomination and a little more than four months before Election Day.
Trump led Biden 46.6% to 45.1% as of Wednesday, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls. The site’s co-founder and president, Tom Bevan, said Trump’s 1.5 percentage point advantage is the largest it has been in three months.
Trump’s lead in the RCP National Average (+1.5%) now bigger than it’s been in three months. pic.twitter.com/Bv3UdiEWQM
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) June 27, 2024
Some polls take into consideration independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein, none of whom qualified to appear on the debate stage this week.
With the others thrown into the mix, the RCP average of polls showed Trump with 42.3% support, Biden with 39.7%, Kennedy with 7.2%, West with 1.4%, and Stein with 1.3% as of Wednesday.
Another national poll tracker, this one from FiveThirtyEight, shows Trump with just a 0.1 percentage point lead over Biden, 41%-40.9%, while Kennedy has 9.2%. Its 2020 feature shows Biden had a 9.4 percentage point advantage over Trump on this date four years ago.
Forbes reported last week that an Ipsos poll showed Trump ahead of Biden in seven battleground states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada—with inflation and immigration being top concerns for voters.
This week, as relayed by Bulwark reporter Marc Caputo, former Ron DeSantis campaign pollster Ryan Tyson came out with swing state polls showing “not only is President Trump still edging out Joe Biden on the ballot test in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin – his lead has expanded in four of those five states.”
Former DeSantis campaign pollster @ryan_tyson is out with a batch of swing state polls showing “not only is President Trump still edging out Joe Biden on the ballot test in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin – his lead has expanded in four of those five states” pic.twitter.com/LdheOvzcg2
— Marc Caputo (@MarcACaputo) June 27, 2024
It has not been all good news for Trump.
Fox News recently did a survey that found Biden to be the front-runner, and GOP strategist Karl Rove argued over the weekend that Biden had some polling momentum after Trump was convicted in his New York hush money case late last month.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE DAILYWIRE+ APP
Still, there have been some particularly troubling signs for Biden in the past couple of weeks.
The recent findings of what is widely regarded as a “gold-standard” poll in Iowa from J. Ann Selzer’s firm showed Trump ahead, touching off commentary about how it portends a poor showing for Biden in battleground states across the Midwest.
And pollster Nate Silver unveiled a forecast model this week on his “Silver Bulletin” substack that found Trump had a nearly 66% chance of winning the 2024 election.
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