Polls Show Trump With Commanding Lead Over Harris Among Independents

Polls show former President Donald Trump with a commanding lead among independent voters over Vice President Kamala Harris, the likely Democratic presidential nominee.

According to the Associated Press, Harris has secured the backing of more than the 1,976 delegates required to win the nomination.

A HarrisX poll conducted July 19-21 before Biden dropped out found Trump leading Harris by eleven points, 51-40% among likely November voters. In a shocking piece of data for Democrats, Trump and Harris were tied at 45% among Hispanic voters. The split among Hispanic voters broke down between men and women; male Hispanic voters favored Trump 58-36%, while female Hispanic voters favored Harris 52-34%. Suburban voters favored Trump by eleven points, 51-40%.

A Quinnipiac poll conducted July 19-21 found that among independent voters, Trump led Harris by a 14-point margin, 46-32%.

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @QuinnipiacPoll

🟥 Trump: 45%
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
🟪 Other: 4%

Independents
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟦 Harris: 32%
🟨 RFK Jr: 11%
🟪 Other: 7%

#19 (2.8/3.0) | July 19-21 | 1,257 RV https://t.co/dR9PzUOOIl https://t.co/Q1gIXgXOp2 pic.twitter.com/OhJjihTzg3

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 22, 2024

A Public Policy Polling survey conducted July 17-20 showed Michigan voters favoring Trump over Harris by five points, 46-41% if two additional candidates were included: independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.

In North Carolina, Trump led Harris by four points, 48-44%, if two additional candidates were included; in Arizona, Trump led Harris 46-40%; in Pennsylvania, Trump led Harris 46-44% with four candidates.

Additionally, Harris elicited far more unfavorable numbers than Trump; in Arizona, Trump was two points under while Harris was a massive 17 points under (Favorable/Unfavorable); in Pennsylvania, Trump was four points under while Harris was a whopping 16 points; in North Carolina, Trump was four points under while Harris was 10 points under; in Michigan, Trump was eight points under while Harris was 12 points under.

Do you have a Favorable or Unfavorable opinion of…?

Arizona
Trump: 47-49 (-2)
Harris: 38-55 (-17)
—
Pennsylvania
Trump: 46-50 (-4)
Harris: 38-54 (-16)
—
Michigan
Trump: 44-52 (-8)
Harris: 40-52 (-12)
—
North Carolina
Trump: 47-51 (-4)
Harris: 41-51 (-10)
—@ppppolls for a… https://t.co/lUjsSH7n4Q pic.twitter.com/BFYgGZhOIb

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 23, 2024

On Monday, Polymarket, which bills itself as “the world’s largest prediction market,” showed the odds of Trump winning the presidential election at 64-33%. It also showed the odds of Trump winning the swing states by significant margins; in Pennsylvania, Trump led 57-43%; in Wisconsin, Trump led 55-45%; in Michigan, Trump led 53-47%; and in Arizona, Trump led 66-34%.

.@Polymarket – Swing States Odds (7/22)

PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Donald Trump: 57%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 43%
—
WISCONSIN
🟥 Donald Trump: 55%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 45%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Donald Trump: 53%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 47%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Donald Trump: 66%
🟦 Kamala Harris: 34%
—
GEORGIA
🟥… pic.twitter.com/qaTda3xxyr