The chances of a building-sized asteroid hitting the Earth in the next decade has risen in small increments multiple times since it was first detected months ago.
AFP reported on Tuesday that new data from NASA gave the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 a 3.1 percent chance of striking the planet in December 2032.
It was only last week that NASA was saying there was a 2.3% chance the asteroid would slam into the Earth, up from a 1.2% estimation in late January, per NBC News.
While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025
NASA says 2024 YR4 is believed to be roughly 130-300 feet wide, large enough to “cause localized damage in the unlikely event that it should impact Earth.”
Media reports have been published over the past week branding the asteroid, which was first detected by a station in Chile last December, as a potential “city killer.”
However, Royal Astronomical Society Deputy Executive Director Robert Massey told Newsweek that he is “not really concerned at all” about 2024 YR4.
“It’s the kind of thing that should concern policymakers and astronomers, particularly, whose job it is to track these things and refine orbits,” Massey said.
He added, “The odds are very, very low and as observations get better, it’s very likely that the probability will drop to zero, so I don’t think the public should be unduly concerned.”
Ground-based telescopes will continue observations “while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028,” NASA says.
The agency says its James Webb Space Telescope, launched in 2021 and orbiting the Sun a million miles away, “will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size.”
With more study, NASA notes it is possible 2024 YR4 will be “ruled out as an impact hazard” like other objects that previously appeared on its asteroid risk list, or the probability will rise.
Humanity has been working on ways to stave off asteroids to avoid devastating impacts, such as the Tunguska event in which one exploded over Siberia in 1908.
In 2022, NASA conducted a test in which it directed a spacecraft to crash into a target asteroid, Didymos. A data analysis showed the kinetic impact successfully altered its orbit.
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The chances of a building-sized asteroid hitting the Earth in the next decade has risen in small increments multiple times since it was first detected months ago.
AFP reported on Tuesday that new data from NASA gave the asteroid known as 2024 YR4 a 3.1 percent chance of striking the planet in December 2032.
It was only last week that NASA was saying there was a 2.3% chance the asteroid would slam into the Earth, up from a 1.2% estimation in late January, per NBC News.
While still an extremely low possibility, asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability with Earth has increased from about 1% to a 2.3% chance on Dec. 22, 2032. As we observe the asteroid more, the impact probability will become better known. More: https://t.co/VWiASTMBDi pic.twitter.com/Z1mpb4UPaC
— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) February 7, 2025
NASA says 2024 YR4 is believed to be roughly 130-300 feet wide, large enough to “cause localized damage in the unlikely event that it should impact Earth.”
Media reports have been published over the past week branding the asteroid, which was first detected by a station in Chile last December, as a potential “city killer.”
However, Royal Astronomical Society Deputy Executive Director Robert Massey told Newsweek that he is “not really concerned at all” about 2024 YR4.
“It’s the kind of thing that should concern policymakers and astronomers, particularly, whose job it is to track these things and refine orbits,” Massey said.
He added, “The odds are very, very low and as observations get better, it’s very likely that the probability will drop to zero, so I don’t think the public should be unduly concerned.”
Ground-based telescopes will continue observations “while the asteroid is still visible through April, after which it will be too faint to observe until around June 2028,” NASA says.
The agency says its James Webb Space Telescope, launched in 2021 and orbiting the Sun a million miles away, “will also observe the asteroid in March 2025 to better assess the asteroid’s size.”
With more study, NASA notes it is possible 2024 YR4 will be “ruled out as an impact hazard” like other objects that previously appeared on its asteroid risk list, or the probability will rise.
Humanity has been working on ways to stave off asteroids to avoid devastating impacts, such as the Tunguska event in which one exploded over Siberia in 1908.
In 2022, NASA conducted a test in which it directed a spacecraft to crash into a target asteroid, Didymos. A data analysis showed the kinetic impact successfully altered its orbit.
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