How (Not) To Win In 2028

At The Daily Wire, we strive to provide our audience not just with accurate reporting and insightful commentary, but with the tools they need to parse the issues of our time. That’s why we’re thrilled to partner with our friends at Manhattan Institute to bring you exclusive commentary and research from their world-class team of scholars.

Each week, Manhattan Institute scholars will bring their analysis right here to The Daily Wire — from insights into politics and hot-button cultural issues to original research on everything from education and race to public safety and the economy.

You’ll hear from Manhattan Institute scholars you know and love, like Christopher Rufo and Heather Mac Donald, as well as scholars you’ve not encountered before. But no matter the scholar or the subject, these pieces will be as engaging as they are informative. They’ll also highlight what Daily Wire editor emeritus Ben Shapiro called Manhattan Institute’s “unwavering optimism about America.”

We’re excited to launch this series with a piece from Manhattan Institute president Reihan Salam. In it, Reihan looks past the 2026 midterms to the 2028 presidential election and offers a roadmap for how Republicans might win in their first-ever post-Trump race. We hope you enjoy. – The Editors

***

Since he came down the golden escalator in 2015, President Donald Trump has been at the center of American public life. It’s strange, therefore, to realize that the Trump era is slowly but inexorably drawing to a close.

Republicans look likely to lose the House of Representatives in November, which will almost certainly bog down the rest of Trump’s administration in interminable impeachment hearings. And the president is increasingly sustaining attacks from within his own party, whether that be from the Epstein-obsessed fringe or from those unhappy with his social media presence.

All of this raises the question that has for years felt unthinkable: what comes after Trump? To an increasingly loud faction on the online right, the answer is a noxious blend of extreme ideologies. But that would be a mistake. Keeping the Trump Train going means embracing Trump’s 2024 strategy: playing to the majority of Americans on issues on which the right can win.

For the past decade, Trump has been the glue that binds together an otherwise fractious — or perhaps incoherent — GOP. What, besides Trump, does the party stand for? Free enterprise or organized labor? Isolationism or peace through strength? Controlling illegal immigration or prohibiting all immigration? Trump kept these divisions suppressed through his charisma, but they are likely to spring to the fore when he is gone.

One group has a vision for what comes next — the online Right, also sometimes called the “woke Right” or, as Daily Wire editor emeritus Ben Shapiro recently labeled them, the “horseshoe Right.” This loose collection of podcasters, posters, and fringe politicians are mobilized around a clear policy platform: skepticism of business and earned wealth; opposition to all immigration; a preference for isolationism and sometimes even open kowtowing to Russia and China; and in general, a politics powered by resentment.

The online right has a clear thesis. To them, Trump’s success was based on his willingness to break taboos and — by implication — to move toward their preferred policy positions. If the GOP wants to hold on to the Trump magic, they argue, then it needs to veer even more towards their particular brand of rightism.

As Trump’s era ends, this argument seems increasingly appealing to his would-be inheritors. In Florida, former debate coach and Washington, D.C., resident James Fishback is running a very online campaign for the governorship. Republican dissenters like Rep. Thomas Massie (KY) and former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene have embraced the online right’s love of conspiracy and its skepticism towards an assertive foreign policy. Even Vice President JD Vance, perhaps anxious about keeping Trump’s coalition intact, seems wary of provoking the online right.

Click here for more Manhattan Institute content.

It is easy to be seduced by loud voices on X, especially between elections. But the online right’s theory of the electorate doesn’t match up with reality. Nearly 80% of Americans believe immigration is a “good thing” for America. They don’t back open borders, but they’re also not in favor of halting immigration outright. Americans are nearly twice as likely to say America should take an “active part” in world affairs as they are to say it should “stay out.” It really is possible to oppose forever wars while supporting the judicious use of force to defend American interests. And while economic nihilism is trending online, a majority of Americans view free enterprise positively, even in the face of relentless doom-mongering.

Nor does the online right’s theory of coalition-building make much sense. To state the obvious, the goal of a campaign is to attract more voters than you repel, not to boost social media engagement. Yet in the online right’s model, Republicans shouldn’t be fighting to consolidate the “normie” majority — the tens of millions of non-ideological voters who care about safe streets, good jobs, decent schools, low taxes, affordable homes, cheap groceries, and other unglamorous essentials. That would be too straightforward. Rather, the online right wants Republicans to lean into strident rhetoric on Wall Street, Israel, and other fixations of the campus Left. The goal is to pick up “populist” voters currently enchanted with the likes of Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Is the idea that there are more Mamdani voters who would cross over to the GOP if the party were truly committed to siding with Hamas over Israel than there are, say, suburban swing voters who will support Republicans if they’re less likely to tank the economy than are the Democrats? Or is it that there are millions of Gen Z socialists clamoring for mass deportations? Let’s just say the political logic here isn’t airtight.

There’s an eerie similarity between the arguments advanced by the online right, in fact, and those preferred by portions of the radical activist left. Both insist that mobilizing the base — always composed of true believers — is more important than persuading marginal voters. Both enforce coalitional discipline through ideology, policing out anyone who disagrees with them. Both exercise outsized power despite their small share of the coalition. Both care more about the emotional satisfaction they derive from believing themselves to be edgy or interesting than they do about accomplishing real things in the real world. If Democrats lost in 2024 because they listened too closely to transgender activists, Republicans risk doing the same if they listen too closely to the online right.

What’s the better way forward? Simple: replicate Trump’s winning playbook from 2024.

Donald Trump secured an Electoral College landslide and popular-vote plurality in 2024 by pivoting toward the center, not away from it. He took advantage of Democrats’ unpopular positions on the border, gender, and runaway inflation, aligning himself with the median voter fed up with the status quo. That strategy dramatically widened the coalition, which is why he overperformed with the black and Latino voters Democrats have long thought of as “theirs.”

These voters didn’t vote for Trump to be radical; they voted for Trump because they were against radicalism. They support law and order, meritocracy, and the opportunity to lead a decent middle-class life. And while many of them are dissatisfied with the direction the administration has gone, they’ve evinced a willingness to vote for these values again, especially as the left seems poised to run on an even more extreme platform than they did in 2024.

One of the open questions, of course, is who — if anyone — will champion this “popularist” lane in the 2028 primary. Whoever does will clearly have the winning strategy for the general: unite conservatives and moderates against the hard left. Just as importantly, he or she will be doing the most important thing for the next nominee: picking up Trump’s torch.

Reihan Salam is the president of the Manhattan Institute.

​[#item_full_content]  

​[[{“value”:”

At The Daily Wire, we strive to provide our audience not just with accurate reporting and insightful commentary, but with the tools they need to parse the issues of our time. That’s why we’re thrilled to partner with our friends at Manhattan Institute to bring you exclusive commentary and research from their world-class team of scholars.

Each week, Manhattan Institute scholars will bring their analysis right here to The Daily Wire — from insights into politics and hot-button cultural issues to original research on everything from education and race to public safety and the economy.

You’ll hear from Manhattan Institute scholars you know and love, like Christopher Rufo and Heather Mac Donald, as well as scholars you’ve not encountered before. But no matter the scholar or the subject, these pieces will be as engaging as they are informative. They’ll also highlight what Daily Wire editor emeritus Ben Shapiro called Manhattan Institute’s “unwavering optimism about America.”

We’re excited to launch this series with a piece from Manhattan Institute president Reihan Salam. In it, Reihan looks past the 2026 midterms to the 2028 presidential election and offers a roadmap for how Republicans might win in their first-ever post-Trump race. We hope you enjoy. – The Editors

***

Since he came down the golden escalator in 2015, President Donald Trump has been at the center of American public life. It’s strange, therefore, to realize that the Trump era is slowly but inexorably drawing to a close.

Republicans look likely to lose the House of Representatives in November, which will almost certainly bog down the rest of Trump’s administration in interminable impeachment hearings. And the president is increasingly sustaining attacks from within his own party, whether that be from the Epstein-obsessed fringe or from those unhappy with his social media presence.

All of this raises the question that has for years felt unthinkable: what comes after Trump? To an increasingly loud faction on the online right, the answer is a noxious blend of extreme ideologies. But that would be a mistake. Keeping the Trump Train going means embracing Trump’s 2024 strategy: playing to the majority of Americans on issues on which the right can win.

For the past decade, Trump has been the glue that binds together an otherwise fractious — or perhaps incoherent — GOP. What, besides Trump, does the party stand for? Free enterprise or organized labor? Isolationism or peace through strength? Controlling illegal immigration or prohibiting all immigration? Trump kept these divisions suppressed through his charisma, but they are likely to spring to the fore when he is gone.

One group has a vision for what comes next — the online Right, also sometimes called the “woke Right” or, as Daily Wire editor emeritus Ben Shapiro recently labeled them, the “horseshoe Right.” This loose collection of podcasters, posters, and fringe politicians are mobilized around a clear policy platform: skepticism of business and earned wealth; opposition to all immigration; a preference for isolationism and sometimes even open kowtowing to Russia and China; and in general, a politics powered by resentment.

The online right has a clear thesis. To them, Trump’s success was based on his willingness to break taboos and — by implication — to move toward their preferred policy positions. If the GOP wants to hold on to the Trump magic, they argue, then it needs to veer even more towards their particular brand of rightism.

As Trump’s era ends, this argument seems increasingly appealing to his would-be inheritors. In Florida, former debate coach and Washington, D.C., resident James Fishback is running a very online campaign for the governorship. Republican dissenters like Rep. Thomas Massie (KY) and former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene have embraced the online right’s love of conspiracy and its skepticism towards an assertive foreign policy. Even Vice President JD Vance, perhaps anxious about keeping Trump’s coalition intact, seems wary of provoking the online right.

Click here for more Manhattan Institute content.

It is easy to be seduced by loud voices on X, especially between elections. But the online right’s theory of the electorate doesn’t match up with reality. Nearly 80% of Americans believe immigration is a “good thing” for America. They don’t back open borders, but they’re also not in favor of halting immigration outright. Americans are nearly twice as likely to say America should take an “active part” in world affairs as they are to say it should “stay out.” It really is possible to oppose forever wars while supporting the judicious use of force to defend American interests. And while economic nihilism is trending online, a majority of Americans view free enterprise positively, even in the face of relentless doom-mongering.

Nor does the online right’s theory of coalition-building make much sense. To state the obvious, the goal of a campaign is to attract more voters than you repel, not to boost social media engagement. Yet in the online right’s model, Republicans shouldn’t be fighting to consolidate the “normie” majority — the tens of millions of non-ideological voters who care about safe streets, good jobs, decent schools, low taxes, affordable homes, cheap groceries, and other unglamorous essentials. That would be too straightforward. Rather, the online right wants Republicans to lean into strident rhetoric on Wall Street, Israel, and other fixations of the campus Left. The goal is to pick up “populist” voters currently enchanted with the likes of Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Is the idea that there are more Mamdani voters who would cross over to the GOP if the party were truly committed to siding with Hamas over Israel than there are, say, suburban swing voters who will support Republicans if they’re less likely to tank the economy than are the Democrats? Or is it that there are millions of Gen Z socialists clamoring for mass deportations? Let’s just say the political logic here isn’t airtight.

There’s an eerie similarity between the arguments advanced by the online right, in fact, and those preferred by portions of the radical activist left. Both insist that mobilizing the base — always composed of true believers — is more important than persuading marginal voters. Both enforce coalitional discipline through ideology, policing out anyone who disagrees with them. Both exercise outsized power despite their small share of the coalition. Both care more about the emotional satisfaction they derive from believing themselves to be edgy or interesting than they do about accomplishing real things in the real world. If Democrats lost in 2024 because they listened too closely to transgender activists, Republicans risk doing the same if they listen too closely to the online right.

What’s the better way forward? Simple: replicate Trump’s winning playbook from 2024.

Donald Trump secured an Electoral College landslide and popular-vote plurality in 2024 by pivoting toward the center, not away from it. He took advantage of Democrats’ unpopular positions on the border, gender, and runaway inflation, aligning himself with the median voter fed up with the status quo. That strategy dramatically widened the coalition, which is why he overperformed with the black and Latino voters Democrats have long thought of as “theirs.”

These voters didn’t vote for Trump to be radical; they voted for Trump because they were against radicalism. They support law and order, meritocracy, and the opportunity to lead a decent middle-class life. And while many of them are dissatisfied with the direction the administration has gone, they’ve evinced a willingness to vote for these values again, especially as the left seems poised to run on an even more extreme platform than they did in 2024.

One of the open questions, of course, is who — if anyone — will champion this “popularist” lane in the 2028 primary. Whoever does will clearly have the winning strategy for the general: unite conservatives and moderates against the hard left. Just as importantly, he or she will be doing the most important thing for the next nominee: picking up Trump’s torch.

Reihan Salam is the president of the Manhattan Institute.

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