Brent crude, widely considered the global benchmark for oil prices, experienced a dramatic swing Monday as geopolitical developments tied to the war in Iran rattled energy markets before quickly calming them.
Early in the day, Brent crude surged to nearly $120 per barrel as traders reacted to ongoing instability in the Middle East. But by the afternoon, prices sharply reversed course, falling below $90 per barrel after President Donald Trump delivered a more optimistic update about the progress of the conflict.
The rapid shift in oil prices coincided with remarks Trump made during a phone interview with CBS News, where he suggested the military campaign in Iran was advancing faster than originally expected. The president had previously indicated the operation could last four to five weeks, but on Monday he described the progress as significantly ahead of schedule.
“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump said during the interview. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles are down to a scatter. Their drones are being blown up all over the place, including their manufacturing of drones.”
Trump added that Iran’s remaining military capacity had been severely diminished.
“If you look, they have nothing left. There’s nothing left in a military sense,” he said.
According to reporting from CBS News Senior White House Correspondent Weijia Jiang, portions of the interview were released shortly after 3:15 p.m. Eastern Time. Around that same period, oil prices began their steep decline while U.S. financial markets staged a major turnaround.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen nearly 900 points earlier in the day amid concerns about the conflict’s potential impact on global energy supplies. However, as oil prices dropped and investors reacted to Trump’s comments, the market rebounded strongly. By the closing bell, the Dow had gained 261 points, while the S&P 500 erased a morning decline of roughly 1.5% and finished the day up nearly 1%.
Another factor influencing energy markets involves the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping corridor between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply typically moves through the narrow waterway, making it one of the most strategically important passages for global energy trade.
Since the conflict began, tanker traffic through the strait has been significantly disrupted. Trump said Monday that shipping activity had begun moving again but warned that any threats against commercial vessels would be met with overwhelming force.
“If they do anything bad, that would be the end of Iran, and you’d never hear the name again,” Trump said.
Trump also indicated the United States is considering taking control of the strait to ensure safe passage for global oil shipments.
Energy analysts have warned that prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices soaring. According to the Associated Press, some experts believe prices could climb to $150 per barrel if tanker traffic remains blocked for more than two weeks.
Meanwhile, American consumers are already feeling the effects of rising energy costs. Gas prices in the United States have climbed since the military operation began. Data from AAA shows the national average price for gasoline has reached $3.47 per gallon, representing a noticeable increase compared to the previous week. Prior to the recent spike, gas prices had largely been trending downward since Trump took office last year.
Trump has not provided a firm timeline for when the military campaign, known as “Operation Epic Fury,” will conclude. Speaking later Monday to Republican lawmakers in Doral, Florida, the president emphasized that U.S. forces would continue their operations until Iran’s military capabilities were completely eliminated.
“The United States military will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated,” Trump said.
The joint U.S.-Israeli campaign has significantly damaged Iran’s naval forces and military infrastructure, according to administration officials. The strikes also reportedly resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.
The conflict has come at a cost for U.S. forces as well. Seven American troops have been killed since the major military operation began on February 28.
